Retirement Social Security

Trump Just Admitted Gas Prices Could Get Worse - Here's What That Means for Your Social Security Check

Gas prices are up, and your Social Security check could feel it.

By Chris Lewis, CEPF , Edited by Laura Hohenstein

Updated May 20, 2026

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President Trump recently told Fox News anchor Maria Bartiromo that gas prices could be the same or maybe a little bit higher by the November midterms. His comment came on the heels of a record 21.2% single-month spike in gas prices.

This is the largest single monthly jump in recorded history and, with the U.S.-Iran conflict keeping oil markets under pressure, relief may not be coming any time soon. For Social Security recipients, that forecast will have a serious knock-on effect well beyond the gas station.

Sustained high energy prices feed directly into the inflation formula that determines annual senior benefit raises. What Trump is describing could reshape what retirees see in their checks, starting January 2027.

Continued record-high gas prices will impact everything you buy, from medications to food to new clothes. If that's the case, 2027's projected cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) increase may not be enough.

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How gas prices connect to your Social Security raise

Social Security cost-of-living adjustments are calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, known as the CPI-W. Unlike broader inflation measures, the CPI-W is weighted more heavily toward gasoline, which makes energy prices one of the most direct levers on how large any year's COLA turns out to be.

Gas prices were up 18.9% year-over-year as of March 2026. This pushed the CPI-W inflation to 3.3% overall. That surge has already pushed the 2027 COLA projections higher. Independent Social Security analyst Mary Johnson raised her estimate to 3.2%, while the nonpartisan Senior Citizens League put its early projection at 2.8%.

The official adjustment won't be set until October, once third-quarter CPI-W data is in, so further movement in gas prices between now and September will continue to shape that final number. Therefore, these early predictions should be taken with a grain of salt.

Why a higher COLA isn't as good as it sounds

A larger benefits raise may seem like welcome news, but a higher COLA is fundamentally a symptom of rising prices, so it's not a real financial gain.

The 2026 COLA was 2.8%, which added about $57 a month to the average retired worker's check, bringing it from roughly $2,024 to $2,081 per month. With March inflation already running at 3.3%, many beneficiaries are already losing ground even after that January raise.

The timing problem makes it worse. COLAs are based on trailing data, specifically CPI-W readings from July through September. If prices continue climbing after that window closes, retirees must absorb months of higher costs before any upward adjustment to their benefit. Just two months ago, Mary Johnson estimated the 2027 COLA at just 1.2%, based on January's inflation data, but that figure shot to 3.2% after March's energy spike.

This illustrates just how fast conditions can shift, and what an impact this has on retirees before their benefits have any chance to catch up.

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The buying power retirees have already lost

Thanks to annual adjustments that consistently fall short of what retirees actually spend, retirees are losing buying power. That isn't anything new. In fact, Social Security benefits have lost roughly 20% of their buying power since 2010.

An AARP survey found that 77% of Americans aged 50 and older don't think a 3% COLA is enough to cover rising expenses. More than a quarter said they need a raise of at least 8% to keep up with actual living costs.

A 3.2% adjustment in 2027 would be a modest improvement over this year's raise, but for many retirees facing higher health care premiums, grocery bills, and fuel costs, it would still leave a meaningful and significant gap.

Why high gas prices hurt retirees twice

The most visible hit is at the pumps, with the national average gas price currently sitting at $4.125 dollars a gallon. At this price, that strains transportation budgets for anyone who drives regularly. But the second hit is less obvious and harder to prepare for.

Higher energy prices raise transportation and production costs throughout the broader economy, pushing up what retirees pay for groceries, prescription medications, and services they depend on every day. That broader inflation may eventually register in a higher COLA estimate. But retirees pay those higher prices in real time. They don't get the luxury of a price freeze until their new COLA arrives.

Retirees have to somehow manage to pay these higher across-the-board costs for months before they see a benefit increase. And, when it does arrive months later, it rarely covers the full difference.

Bottom line

Trump's acknowledgement that gas prices could stay elevated or even rise further through the midterms is a strong indicator of widespread increased costs for the roughly 75 million Americans receiving Social Security or Supplemental Security Income (SSI).

A higher 2027 COLA may follow, but it would reflect how much more everything costs, so it wouldn't be genuine progress in retirement income security. For retirees on fixed incomes, the practical response is to act now rather than wait for an adjustment that is likely to trail actual costs.

Review your retirement plan, including variable expenses. Identifying areas where spending can be trimmed before prices climb further, and exploring whether any supplemental income options are available, are steps worth taking before an already tight budget gets squeezed further.

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