Social Security's trust fund is going to run out of money if lawmakers don't act. The only question is when it will happen. The most recent Trustees' report suggests 2034, but the Congressional Budget Office puts the deadline date even sooner at 2032.
If the trust fund runs dry, Social Security can pay around 81% of promised benefits out of revenue from current workers, according to the Trustees. But, for those hoping for a stress-free retirement, the looming threat of Social Security benefit cuts isn't ideal.
It can be frustrating to look at Social Security's troubled future when you consider that lawmakers reformed the benefits program in the 1980s.
In fact, some current and future retirees may wonder whether those lawmakers who made reforms back then doomed Social Security to its fate today. So, is that what happened, or is there more to the story?
Get a protection plan on all your appliances
Did you know if your air conditioner stops working, your homeowner’s insurance won’t cover it? Same with plumbing, electrical issues, appliances, and more.
A home warranty from Choice Home Warranty could pick up the slack where insurance falls short.
For a limited time, you can get your first month free with a Single Payment home warranty plan.
A brief history of Social Security
When Social Security was first created, there was a close link between the contributions a worker made and the benefits they received. In 1939, however, this link was broken because benefits were tied to average earnings, and spousal and survivor benefits were added, neither of which was fully funded.
When that change occurred, Social Security moved more to a pay-as-you-go system, in which current workers pay the benefits of current retirees. This requires a sufficient number of workers relative to retirees.
Reforms of the 1980s
According to the Center for Retirement Research, lawmakers in the 1980s who reformed Social Security were looking at a situation in which fertility was declining and the cost of benefits was increasing, creating a growing gap between revenue coming in and money going out.
This is essentially the same situation we're facing today.
Lawmakers in the 1980s made major changes
Lawmakers aimed to address the shortfall for 75 years with the reforms they made to Social Security at the time.
They addressed the immediate crisis by increasing payroll taxes, adding more workers to the system by including some federal and non-profit employees in Social Security, taxing Social Security benefits for high earners for the first time, and delaying the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). This brought in enough revenue to pay all of the promised benefits.
They also raised the full retirement age, phasing in the change slowly, which helped with Social Security's long-term funding issues.
If you’re over 50, take advantage of massive discounts and financial resources
Over 50? Join AARP today— because if you’re not a member you could be missing out on huge perks. When you start your membership today, you can get discounts on things like travel, meal deliveries, eyeglasses, prescriptions that aren’t covered by insurance and more.
Start your membership by creating an account here and filling in all of the information (Do not skip this step!) Doing so will allow you to take up 25% off your AARP membership, making it just $15 the first year with auto-renewal.
How 75 years turned out to be 50
These changes did end up enabling Social Security to continue paying benefits at the time and made the program more financially stable. But unfortunately, projections fell short, and Social Security wasn't solvent for 75 years.
Instead, if the Trustees' 2034 projections pan out, it will have been solvent for just over 50 years.
Balancing the burden between current and future cohorts
When lawmakers made the changes in the 1980s, they knew at the time this wouldn't fix the problem for good. As CRR explained, they were aware that the trust fund would eventually face shortfalls again once the Baby Boomers started retiring en masse.
But, they also realized they couldn't solve the entire problem all at once.
They needed an immediate fix, but they also needed something that could actually pass into law. In other words, they needed something that wasn't too politically painful.
Why lawmakers of the 1980s couldn't permanently fix Social Security
If they had tried to ensure that Social Security remained fully funded for the foreseeable future, they would have had to pass a huge and immediate tax hike on current workers. That was simply impractical.
Rather than solely burdening the group of employees at the time, the Center for Retirement Research reports that they sought out an equitable balance, imposing some of the obligation to shore up Social Security on workers back then — and leaving some of the obligation to workers today.
Retirement News: Almost 80% of Americans fear a retirement age increase — here’s the real reason why
How will Social Security be fixed this time?
Ultimately, the time has now come for lawmakers to continue the work of those in the 1980s. This means finding new ways to solve short-term and long-term funding issues.
It remains unclear whether today's Congress will implement similar compromises to those made in the 1980s or if they will take a different approach this time.
Proposed solutions
Many different proposals have been put on the table in recent years, with varying degrees of political interest. For example, during the Obama era, a proposal to change the COLA formula to result in smaller raises was under consideration, while President Joe Biden suggested increasing payroll taxes for those with incomes above $400,000 to provide more funding.
Lawmakers will soon have to begin to solve the problem, because the longer they wait, the more difficult it becomes. And time is running out.
Bottom line
Social Security benefits are a major income source for retirees, and almost everyone assumes they'll be able to collect their Social Security benefits when making their retirement plan. A 20% or so cut to benefits, which would be necessary if the trust fund runs dry, would likely be catastrophic.
Lawmakers in the 1980s provided a blueprint for reform, so today's Congress may be able to implement some of their approaches — or they may try novel solutions. But the clock is ticking, time is running out, and the 2030s will bring the end of the trust fund before we know it, so acting soon is essential.
More from FinanceBuzz:
- Bills to cut if money feels tight.
- Find out if you could pay less for car insurance in just a few clicks.
- Make these 7 savvy moves when you have $1,000 in the bank.
- 14 moves seniors could benefit from but often forget about.
Add Us On Google