Retirement Social Security

Experts Weigh In on The Future of Social Security: "Don’t Count on the Full Benefit"

The future of Social Security isn't clear. But staying informed can help.

By Chris Lewis, CEPF , Edited by Laura Hohenstein

Updated Nov. 15, 2025

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Social Security is a crucial component of many Americans' retirement plans. Almost three-quarters of seniors rely on Social Security for more than half of their retirement income, according to a 2025 survey conducted by The Senior Citizens League.

But for future retirees, relying so heavily on Social Security income comes with risks and uncertainty. As you look down the road to retirement, staying informed on the future of Social Security can help you stretch your retirement dollars further.

Here's what experts had to say about Social Security's future.

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The idea that Social Security will vanish is a misconception

When looking ahead, many in their 30s and 40s don't believe Social Security will be around for them in retirement. In fact, a 2025 poll from the Bipartisan Policy Center's American Savings Education Council found that 74% of American workers believe Social Security will run out of money before they retire.

But most experts agree that Social Security won't be going away entirely.

"It's a pay-as-you-go system funded by payroll taxes, and as long as people are working, money will continue to flow into the program," explains Michael Liner, attorney and founder of Liner Legal.

Liner continues, "However, the benefit structure may change; younger workers should expect possible adjustments, such as higher retirement ages or modified benefit formulas."

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Benefits may decrease, but it's not the end of Social Security

"There is a significant funding problem, but there is not a cliff where payments will end entirely," says Stephen Vecchione, CFP, co-founder and managing partner of Statera Advisors and Statera Retirement.

Instead of payments abruptly ending, payments may shrink after the Social Security Trust Fund runs out of money, which is expected by Q2 of 2032. After that point, the system would be funded with incoming payroll taxes. Currently, future payroll taxes are expected to cover around 78% of the promised benefits.

Of course, a dip in benefits isn't ideal. But that's not a total collapse.

Changes have to happen

The thought of Social Security payments dropping for future retirees is an issue that many care about. Consequently, many political proposals have been made to address this impending crisis.

"Changes must happen over the next decade, but I would prefer to see smaller changes occur within a year or two," says Curt Scott, CFP of Scott Financial Group, of Social Security.

Scott continues, "The longer we wait to make changes, the more harsh and negatively impactful they will be."

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Social Security can't be your only retirement plan

"Don't count on the full benefit without contingencies," says Vecchione. "It's still very likely you'll get something from Social Security, but you should build your retirement plan assuming either (a) benefits are somewhat reduced, or (b) the age you receive full benefits shifts upward/other tweaks happen."

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You might have to work for longer

"It's not fully sustainable in its current form," says Scott. "Raising the FRA will indirectly reduce the benefits of recipients, either by lowering their benefit compared to what it is for a 62-year-old today or causing them to delay benefits."

Most workers don't necessarily want to work for longer. But for those relying mainly on Social Security as a retirement plan, working into their golden years might become more commonplace.

Assume that your Social Security payments will be lower

"As it stands, Social Security is designed to replace only about 40% of a person's pre-retirement income," says Christine Lam, CFP, Investment Advisor Representative at Financial Investment Team in Portland, Oregon.

"With the possibility of future benefit reductions, it's likely that Social Security will cover an even smaller portion of retirement income moving forward," she continues. "When building plans for my younger clients, I use a reduced benefit amount of 25%-30% within their income plan."

Preparing for possible changes to the Social Security program by planning to cover the bulk of your retirement expenses will help you survive financially, regardless of what happens to the program. In the best-case scenario, you'd have a higher retirement income with your fully expected Social Security benefits.

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You should seek to grow diverse income streams for retirement

In a world where the details of Social Security's future payments are uncertain, it's important to build other retirement income streams.

"Don't rely solely or even primarily on Social Security," says Vecchione. "Count on other savings, possibly part-time work, other investments, annuities, income-producing real estate or investments."

You have to get serious about saving for retirement on your own

When it comes to saving money for retirement, it's easy to kick the can down the road. But waiting to save for retirement can haunt you later.

"If you're already in your 30s/40s, it's not too late to catch up," says Vecchione. "Maximize contributions where you can, optimize your portfolio and savings rate, and treat retirement savings as a high priority."

Bottom line

When planning for retirement, deciding how much to factor in future Social Security payments is a key question.

Although no one can predict the future, the experts seem to think payments will continue, even for today's younger workers. But having a safety net of your own to cover retirement costs is always a good idea.

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