Retirement Social Security

The Real Threat to Your Social Security If You’re Under 55 Might Surprise You

Rising health care costs may outpace benefits over time.

By Adam Palasciano , Edited by Laura Hohenstein

Updated May 2, 2026

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Many Americans worry that Social Security won't be there when they retire, especially those still years away from claiming benefits. While concerns about funding, inflation, and market volatility are valid, the bigger issue for many households may be how far their Social Security benefits actually go once they start receiving them. The real risk isn't what you might expect.

Even if benefits remain intact, rising health care costs could steadily erode their value over time. That means the challenge may not be getting Social Security, but making it last. Here's why this often-overlooked factor could reshape retirement planning for those under 55.

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Many people focus on the wrong Social Security risks

It's common to hear concerns about Social Security running out of money or being cut significantly in the future. While the program does face long-term funding challenges, most projections suggest benefits would still be paid but may be reduced by about 25% by 2032 rather than disappearing entirely.

Other fears — such as stock market downturns or general inflation — also tend to dominate retirement conversations. These risks are real, but they are often more visible and easier to understand. As a result, a slower-moving issue like rising health care costs can be overlooked, even though it may have a more direct impact on retirees' day-to-day finances.

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Health care costs are rising faster than benefits

One of the biggest challenges is that health care costs tend to rise faster than overall inflation. Recent data shows that medical expenses could increase significantly in the upcoming years — the projected long-term health care inflation rate is 5.8%, based on a 65-year-old couple retiring in 2026.

Meanwhile, Social Security cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) are often lower and tied to broader inflation measures. For 2026, the Social Security COLA was just 2.8%, significantly lagging the rising cost of health care. This creates a gap over time, where expenses grow faster than income. Even small differences in annual increases can compound significantly over decades, reducing purchasing power in retirement.

Retirees may spend a large share of income on medical costs

As people age, health care becomes a larger part of their budget. Premiums, out-of-pocket expenses, prescription drugs, and long-term care needs can all add up quickly.

If costs continue rising faster than benefits, retirees could end up spending a substantial portion of their monthly income on medical care alone. In some cases, health-related expenses could consume the majority of Social Security payments. This shift can leave less room for other essentials, such as housing, food, and everyday living expenses.

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The gap can grow over time if nothing changes

The long-term impact of this trend is easy to underestimate. A few percentage points of difference between benefit increases and cost increases may not seem significant in the short term, but over 20 or 30 years, the effect can be substantial.

As health care costs rise, retirees may need to draw more heavily on savings or adjust their lifestyle to compensate. Those who retire earlier or live longer may feel this pressure more acutely. Without planning, the mismatch between income and expenses can gradually reduce financial flexibility.

Planning ahead can help offset rising health care costs

While the trend is concerning, there are steps you can take to prepare. Building additional savings, maintaining access to employer-sponsored health coverage when possible, and understanding Medicare options can all help manage future expenses.

Some individuals can also explore health savings accounts (HSAs), supplemental insurance, or lifestyle changes that support long-term health and reduce medical costs. Even small adjustments made earlier can have a meaningful impact over time. Taking a proactive approach can help you better align your income and expenses in retirement.

Bottom line

For many Americans under 55, the biggest threat to Social Security may not be whether benefits exist, but how far they go. Rising health care costs have the potential to steadily erode purchasing power, making it harder to rely on benefits alone.

Recognizing this risk early can help you take steps to protect your financial future and lower your financial stress later in life. Planning for higher health care costs now — rather than reacting to them later — can make a meaningful difference in how secure your retirement feels.

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