Nvidia Just Slid Below $190 - But One Analyst Sees It More Than Doubling

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) briefly dropped below $190 on July 30, 2026, as concerns about AI-infrastructure depreciation and hyperscaler competition pushed the stock roughly 20% below its May closing high of $235.74. Most investors who hold Nvidia already know the stock matters to their overall financial fitness, and watching it fall this far from the top tests whether the long-term case still holds.

One Wall Street analyst not only thinks it holds but sees the stock more than doubling from current levels. The bull thesis, where it sits relative to the consensus, and the risks behind the selloff all deserve examination.

Baird's Tristan Gerra holds the Street-high target at $500

Robert W. Baird analyst Tristan Gerra raised his Nvidia price target to $500 from $300 on May 21, 2026, and reiterated a buy rating alongside the increase. This was the most aggressive published call on the stock, implying roughly 163% upside from the $190 level, as reported by 24/7 Wall St.

Gerra is ranked 90th among more than 12,400 analysts tracked by TipRanks, with a 57.59% success rate and an average return of 33.50% on his rated positions, as documented by TipRanks. The $500 target places him far above the consensus, and the gap between his view and the rest of the Street is unusually wide.

Gerra treats Nvidia as a full-stack AI platform, not a chipmaker

Gerra's model layers together monetization across NVLink networking, the CUDA software moat, and Nvidia AI Enterprise microservices that command software-like margins, as detailed by 24/7 Wall St. The distinction matters because a chip vendor gets valued on hardware cycles, while a platform company gets valued on recurring revenue.

The CUDA developer ecosystem includes roughly six million developers building on Nvidia's platforms. Gerra argues this creates a barrier to entry that competitors have not been able to replicate, even as AMD and custom silicon gain attention. Your view on the $500 target likely depends on whether you see Nvidia as a hardware company or a software-enabled platform.

Pricing power may expand as hyperscalers move from Blackwell to Rubin

Gerra expects accelerating average selling price expansion as cloud providers transition from the current Blackwell architecture to the next-generation Rubin platform, as noted by BigGo Finance. The Vera CPU within the Rubin platform targets a $200 billion incremental market. Key elements of the thesis include the following.

• NVLink networking and CUDA software generating platform-level margins.
• AI Enterprise microservices creating recurring, software-like revenue.
• Vera CPU addressing a projected $200 billion incremental market.
• AI infrastructure spending rising from $1 trillion in 2027 to $3 to $4 trillion by 2030.

The broader consensus sits at $303 with 58 buy ratings

Wall Street's consensus price target for Nvidia is $302.83 across 61 analysts, implying roughly 59% upside from the $190 level, as compiled by 24/7 Wall St. The coverage includes 10 strong buy, 48 buy ratings, two holds, and one sell.

Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya holds a $350 target with a buy rating, and Truist's William Stein raised his target to $307, as reported by BigGo Finance. The broader pool has not followed Gerra to $500, but the consensus has not retreated either. The floor target of $180 sits close to where the stock trades.

The forward P/E of 22 looks low against 85% revenue growth

Nvidia trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 22 times against revenue growth of 85% year over year and a net profit margin of 55.6%, as noted by 24/7 Wall St. The company guided Q2 fiscal 2027 revenue to $91 billion, up from $81.6 billion in Q1.

A 22 times forward multiple on a business growing revenue at 85% produces a PEG ratio well below one, which some investors view as a signal of undervaluation. The counter-argument is that growth at this pace rarely sustains, and any deceleration could compress the multiple quickly.

AI depreciation fears and custom silicon drove the pullback

Concerns about how quickly AI-related hardware depreciates have weighed on the stock. Large cloud providers including Amazon, Google, and Meta are also investing heavily in designing their own chips, which could reduce Nvidia's share of the data center market over time.

AMD and Marvell each fell roughly 22% during the same week that Nvidia dropped about 10%, confirming the broader semiconductor selloff was not limited to a single name, as noted by 24/7 Wall St. Nvidia's smaller decline relative to peers suggests the market still assigns it a premium, but the premium narrowed.

Bottom line

Gerra's $500 target stands as the most aggressive published call on Nvidia and rests on a thesis that the company is a full-stack AI platform with software-like monetization and pricing power that grows with each generation of hardware. The consensus at $303 is less extreme but still implies significant upside from the $190 level.

Deciding when to start investing at these levels depends on how much weight you assign to the platform thesis versus the near-term risks of depreciation, custom silicon, and the sustainability of hyperscaler spending. Nvidia's forward P/E of 22 on 85% revenue growth is difficult to dismiss, but the stock needs execution to match the expectations already embedded in even the consensus target.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.

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