Retirement Social Security

New Study Predicts This Is the Year the Social Security Trust Will Run Out

Find out the latest predictions about Social Security and how to prepare.

By David Tidmarsh , Edited by Laura Hohenstein

Updated Aug. 16, 2025

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Social Security has been a fundamental part of many Americans' retirement plans since it was created 90 years ago. As of June 2025, more than 66 million people in the United States receive Social Security benefits.

However, a new report has shown that the current Social Security trust fund is in danger of running out sooner than you might think. Learn the details of this report and what you should do about it.

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What does the report say?

In June 2025, the Social Security Board of Trustees issued its latest annual report. This board is composed of six members: the Secretary of the Treasury, the Secretary of Labor, the Secretary of Health and Human Services, the Commissioner of Social Security, and two more members appointed by the U.S. president.

According to this report, the Social Security trust fund is projected to be depleted by 2034, in nine years. That's one year earlier than the estimate in the board's 2024 annual report.

Once funds run out, incoming payroll taxes will cover only 81 cents of every dollar in Social Security benefits, unless action is taken before then.

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Why is the Social Security trust fund in danger of running out?

In short, U.S. economic and demographic trends have changed so that there is now more money coming out of the Social Security trust fund than what's going in.

During earlier years of Social Security, the program collected more in payroll deductions than it distributed, allowing beneficiaries to receive the full amount promised.

However, various factors have slowly eroded the Social Security surplus:

Today's retirees are living longer than ever and receiving Social Security longer.
Birth rates have decreased over time, leading to fewer workers in the labor force contributing to Social Security.
Rising wage inequality means that a greater percentage of income is above the maximum limit at which Social Security taxes are collected (currently $176,100 in 2025).

For example, in 2024, total Social Security revenues were roughly $1.42 trillion, while total expenditures were about $1.48 trillion. Along with the cost to administer Social Security, this resulted in a net loss of $67 billion.

At the end of 2024, the Social Security trust fund had $2.72 trillion in reserve, which the board estimates will all be gone by 2034.

Why was the date moved up?

These trends explain why the Social Security trust is in danger of running out, but why did the board move up its estimate one year from 2035 to 2034?

According to the report, the primary reason is the Social Security Fairness Act, which was passed by the U.S. Congress in January 2025. This legislation repealed two policies that lowered the benefits for certain employees (such as teachers, nonprofit workers, and government employees) who receive a pension from jobs that were exempt from paying into Social Security but also received Social Security benefits for other jobs that did have a paycheck deduction.

The Social Security benefits for these employees have now increased, which caused the board to predict that funds will run out one year earlier.

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What should you do about this?

Congress is responsible for making changes to Social Security benefits and revenue sources. There are several options to help deal with the projected Social Security trust fund deficit: reducing benefits, increasing payroll taxes, raising the income cap on taxable earnings, and increasing the minimum age to receive benefits.

If you're concerned about the upcoming shortfall in Social Security benefits, we recommend contacting your members of Congress to urge action on this matter before funds get too low.

The last time that Social Security was in danger of depletion was more than 40 years ago, in 1983. Congress resolved the shortfall by significantly reforming the program, including raising the full retirement age from 65 to 67 and making benefits taxable.

Of course, you don't have to sit around and wait for Congress to act. It's better to take matters into your own hands and improve your financial health by making regular contributions to an individual retirement fund, such as a 401(k) or IRA.

This way, even if no action is taken for the next nine years, you won't feel the shock of having less income in retirement than you expected.

Bottom line

A recent survey by The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) estimated that nearly 22 million Americans rely solely on their Social Security income. To avoid massive economic disruption, ensuring that Social Security remains solvent will be a crucial task for members of Congress in the coming years.

Meanwhile, it's important to diversify your savings and income streams to set yourself up for retirement by contributing to a 401(k) or IRA throughout your career, so that you're not entirely dependent on Social Security benefits.

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