Report Puts Social Security Trust Fund Depletion Later Than Official Projections

The millions of Americans who depend on Social Security senior benefits may have a bit more time before the Social Security trust fund runs out. 

A Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) projects that the trust fund may last a few months longer than the depletion date projected in the Social Security Trustees Report. Either way, Congress needs to act to prevent automatic benefits cuts that could leave millions of retirees with less money each month.

From projected depletion dates to what might happen if the funds run out, here's what you should know if you or a loved one receives Social Security benefits.

The updated analysis and projections for Social Security

According to the PWBM analysis, the trust fund that helps the Social Security program pay retirement benefits may be depleted in February 2033. The projected date is a few months later than the date predicted by the latest Social Security Trustees Report, which puts the trust fund runout in the fourth quarter of 2032.

The picture is a bit brighter if the trust fund is combined with the disability insurance trust fund, which may help extend the depletion date. In that scenario, the PWBM analysis projects depletion in February 2035, while the Social Security Trustees Report projects depletion in the third quarter of 2034.

Why the shifting projections matter

While the estimated depletion dates are relatively close together, the difference in the projections is notable because the PWBM has historically projected earlier depletion dates than the trustees fund. The gap between the projections has closed and even reversed, but both projections still highlight the importance of legislative action to protect the Social Security program.

Why projections keep changing

In 2025, both the PWBM and Trustees Report projected a depletion date of 2033. In 2026, the PWBM still projected 2033, but the Trustees Report estimated that funds will deplete by the end of 2032.

Changes in tax law partly explain the shifting projections. The 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act lowered tax liability for Social Security beneficiaries, meaning the trust fund receives less revenue from income taxes on Social Security benefits.

The aging population has also strained the trust fund, as the number of people receiving benefits has grown. In 1960, five workers paid Social Security taxes for each Social Security beneficiary, but by 2026, that ratio dropped to 2.9 workers per beneficiary.

What trust fund depletion would mean

If the Social Security trust fund became depleted, the program wouldn't go bankrupt, since payroll taxes would continue to help fund the program, but wouldn't cover the full benefit amounts. Benefit payments wouldn't immediately stop, but they would be reduced. Current law prohibits the Social Security program from paying out more in benefits than it receives in revenue after the trust fund is depleted.

Under the Social Security trustees' 2026 projections, the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund is projected to be depleted in late 2032, when continuing income would cover approximately 78% of scheduled retirement and survivor benefits. So recipients would face a 22% benefits cut.

A 22% cut would reduce benefits by about $500 per month on average, depending on the state in which a beneficiary lives. Nationally, the cut would average about $500, which is more than what average retired households spend on groceries each month, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Such a cut could be financially devastating, especially for households that have limited or no other sources of income.

What might happen if the trust fund issue isn't addressed

The initial benefit reductions are just a starting point unless Congress identifies a solution to the trust fund insolvency. PWBM estimates that if the trust funds were combined, 86% of scheduled benefits could be paid when the funds were depleted. However, that figure would fall to 60% by 2100, potentially leaving Social Security beneficiaries with another, deeper benefits cut.

The trustees project that 83% of benefits would be payable at the depletion of the combined funds. By 2100, that could drop to 65% of benefits.

Who might be affected

The long-term impact of the trust fund's depletion could directly affect nearly one-fifth of the population. As of September 2026, over 71.6 million people received Social Security benefits. Those beneficiaries included more than 55 million retired workers and about 2.8 million spouses and children of retired workers.

Bottom line

All of these projections assume Congress takes no action, and there's plenty of discussion about Social Security's pending insolvency. Both Democrats and Republicans have suggested potential solutions, such as increasing or eliminating the wage cap to boost income taxes, increasing the payroll tax rate, raising the full retirement age to claim Social Security, reducing benefits for higher-income individuals, and more. 

With the trust fund projected to run out as early as 2032, the window for reform continues to narrow, and the pressure on Congress to identify and implement a solution increases.

If Social Security is part of your retirement plan, it may be a good idea to talk with a financial advisor. A professional could help you review your plan, evaluate your budget in case your benefits should be reduced, and make sure that you're on track for retirement.

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