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Elizabeth Warren Says This Winter’s Heating Bill Could Be $600 Higher for Some Households - Here's Why

Some Americans could face a $600 increase in winter heating costs

By Jordan Major , Edited by Laura Hohenstein

Updated Nov. 4, 2026

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Keeping your home warm could get considerably more expensive this winter. Sen. Elizabeth Warren and other lawmakers are warning that some households could spend roughly $600 more than they did last year.

An extra $600 over a single heating season can put real pressure on a household budget, especially when families are already trying to cope with increasing bills for groceries, insurance, and other everyday expenses. The added cost won't hit everyone the same way. How much more you pay could depend heavily on where you live and how your home is heated.

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Warren warns heating bills could jump $600

On October 5, Warren and 26 other lawmakers sent a letter to the Department of Energy warning about rapidly rising heating oil prices and calling for action to lower costs.

"Heating oil costs for the upcoming winter are projected to reach record levels, and families throughout the northeastern United States will likely bear the brunt of these costs," the lawmakers wrote.

They estimated that households relying on heating oil could pay approximately $600 more to keep their homes warm this winter than last year. The lawmakers attributed much of the increase to higher oil prices stemming from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

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Heating oil costs are expected to rise 21%

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects households that primarily heat with oil to spend 21% more this winter than last winter.

Heating oil itself is forecast to cost 34% more, although the EIA expects warmer weather in the Northeast to reduce consumption and offset part of that increase. Tighter global supplies are contributing to higher prices, while U.S. inventories are expected to be about 11% below their five-year average in the fourth quarter.

Prices have already climbed sharply. As of October 19, the average residential heating oil price was $6.19 per gallon, according to EIA data, compared with roughly $3.53 a year earlier. How much you ultimately spend will depend on oil prices, how cold the winter becomes, your home's size and efficiency, and how much fuel you use.

The Northeast will feel the biggest impact

Most Americans don't heat their homes with oil. Only about 3% of U.S. households use heating oil as their primary heating fuel, according to the EIA, and those homes are concentrated primarily in the Northeast.

New England is particularly exposed. Warren and the other lawmakers estimate that roughly one-third of homes in the region rely on heating oil. That includes households in states such as Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

Households elsewhere may have a very different winter. The EIA expects homes primarily heated with natural gas to spend 9% less nationally this winter, while propane users are expected to spend 3% less. In comparison, homes primarily heated with electricity are expected to spend about 4% more.

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How should you budget for a $600 increase?

One way to prepare is to spread the projected increase across the heating season rather than waiting for a large bill.

The EIA's winter forecast covers November through March. An additional $600 over those five months works out to roughly $120 per month. Your actual increase could be higher or lower, but setting aside additional money each month can make the expense easier to manage.

You can also review last winter's heating oil usage to get a more personalized estimate. If you know approximately how many gallons you used, comparing that with current local prices can give you a better idea of what this winter might cost.

Some households may qualify for heating assistance

Lower-income households struggling with energy costs may be eligible for help through the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP).

LIHEAP provides federal funding to states, territories, and Tribes to help eligible households with home energy bills. Assistance can include help paying heating costs, dealing with an energy crisis, weatherizing a home, or making certain energy-related repairs.

Eligibility and benefits vary by state, so check your state's LIHEAP program to see what assistance may be available.

Small changes could also reduce how much oil you use

You can't control the market price of heating oil, but reducing consumption could offset some of the increase.

Lowering your thermostat when you're asleep or away, sealing drafts around doors and windows, and keeping heating equipment properly maintained can reduce the amount of energy your home needs.

The EIA notes that heating expenditures vary based on factors including insulation, air tightness, home size, heating equipment, and weather. That means the $600 estimate shouldn't be treated as a guaranteed increase for every heating-oil household.

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Bottom line

Warren and other lawmakers warn that families relying on heating oil could spend roughly $600 more to heat their homes this winter, with households in the Northeast facing the greatest exposure.

The EIA independently forecasts a 21% increase in heating-oil spending, while residential heating oil prices have already risen sharply compared with last year.

If your home uses heating oil, budgeting around $120 extra per month from November through March could provide a useful starting point. Lower-income households should also check whether they qualify for LIHEAP assistance, which could help pay for your bills during the colder months.

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